Changes in governors do not change life. Who is lobbying for a change of power in Russian regions  Why is there a change of governors?

In just the last 10 days, the resignation affected the head of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Dagestan, Nizhny Novgorod region Valery Shantsev, Samara region and Nenets Autonomous Okrug Igor.

Several heirs of retired regional heads are already known. Thus, a 40-year-old man, who previously held the post of First Deputy Minister of Industry of Russia, was appointed to replace Shantsev. The Samara region was headed by the former mayor of the regional capital.

The first deputy director of the Russian Guard is being considered as the main candidate for the post of head of Dagestan. Koshin will be replaced by the 38-year-old, who has worked as deputy head since November 2014.

Next in line, according to an informed interlocutor, is the resignation of the Omsk governor.

“This will be completed by the 10th (October 10), based on the results, from 8 to 11 replacements of new gubernatorial candidates will be proposed, taking into account those that have already been announced. The number of resignations depends entirely on the president’s decision,” explained a person close to the Kremlin.

According to him, replacing the head of the Omsk region is long overdue.

“Yes, changes are required in the Omsk region to improve controllability in the region,” the interlocutor indicated.

Earlier, the press secretary of the head of the region called information about the planned resignation “an artificially created wave of rumors” and said that Nazarov’s schedule was scheduled for several weeks in advance.

Political scientists from the Minchenko Consulting holding have compiled their list of governors who may soon lose their post as head of the region. This became known from the expert report “Politburo 2.0 and the Governor’s Corps.”

The governors were assessed according to nine criteria: for each of them one could receive from three to 10 points. The criteria for evaluating the work of regional heads were divided into “bonuses” and “fines.”

To the first, political scientists included the presence in the subject big projects, the recognizable image of the governor and his support from forces close to the Kremlin. The “penalty” criterion included federal and regional conflicts, as well as criminal cases and arrests of relatives of regional heads.

Experts came to the conclusion that the next heads of regions to be included in the “removal” list will be the heads of Kalmykia, North Ossetia, Altai, Novosibirsk, Murmansk, Omsk, Vladimir, Ivanovo and Voronezh regions, as well as the heads of the Altai and Primorsky territories.

All candidates received low marks - from four to nine points. At the same time, the head of Kalmykia, Alexey Orlov, received the lowest score - experts rated him four points. The chapter was given five points Novosibirsk region. The head of the Murmansk region, the governor of the Altai region and the head of the Omsk region Viktor Nazarov had no less low scores - they received six points each.

Political scientists recognized the mayor of Moscow, the head of Tula region and the head of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - they all scored 19 points.

A member told Gazeta.Ru that the imminent resignation of the governor of the Kemerovo region is not ruled out, primarily due to age indicators. According to her, the reason for the change of most regional heads is the policy of rejuvenating personnel. As for the timing of resignations, we must assume that the current president of Russia will serve another term next year.

“By this time, it is necessary that the newly appointed heads of regions gain confidence in their posts, get their bearings, and take the levers of control. They need to be given time to prove themselves. Change the heads of such large regions immediately before presidential elections undesirable,” the political scientist said.

The heads of three more regions – Bashkiria, Kursk region and Trans-Baikal Territory – resigned. Thus, in two weeks the leadership of 11 territories out of 85 changed. In total, this year the government was renewed in 19 subjects of the Federation, and in two years the change affected almost half of the country’s regions. What is the purpose of such unprecedented changes in the regional elite?

The latest resignations affected one of the two long-lived governors - Kursk Alexander Mikhailov, one of the three women - heads of regions Natalya Zhdanova from the Trans-Baikal Territory and the head of one of the largest national republics Rustem Khamitov from Bashkortostan. Putin has already appointed acting responsibilities in Kursk and Ufa - Roman Starovoit and Radiy Khabirov.

As a result, a series of resignations that began on September 26 have already affected 11 regions. And this is in two weeks. And if you look from the beginning of the year, you get 19. But it’s better to take the figure for two years - that’s how much time has passed since the change of the internal political bloc of the Russian Presidential Administration and the arrival of Sergei Kiriyenko. Then there will be 39 regions – that is, almost half of Russia’s 85. And 2018 is not over yet.

That is, we are dealing with a very clear course of the Kremlin towards updating the governor’s corps as such. After all, there have not been such large-scale changes, that is, the replacement of almost half of the heads of regions, since the early 90s, when Boris Yeltsin appointed heads of administrations in the independent Russian Federation that became independent after the collapse of the USSR.

But there such a massive renewal was explained by the need to end the power of the first secretaries of the regional committees of the CPSU, replacing them with officials loyal to the Russian leadership. Now we are talking about something completely different.

Although the system of gubernatorial power in Russia seems to be firmly established last years, we are now witnessing a transition to a completely new stage of its functioning. Before that, she went through three main stages.

Apart from the “zero cycle” with appointments from above (in most regions), which ended by 1996, three main periods can be distinguished.

Direct elections of governors - from the mid-90s to 2004. At this time no personnel work In principle, there could not be a Kremlin to train governors. Because President Yeltsin and his administration did not carry out any strategic personnel work, not only in the regions, but also in Moscow. And Vladimir Putin’s first term was devoted to restoring controllability of the country as such. Including through training the existing regional elites to carry out federal laws and work in a single vertical of power.

Governor appointments – from 2005 to 2011. During these years, governors were elected by regional legislative assemblies, based on the proposal of the president. Over the years, the governor's corps has been updated very seriously - in fact, main goal During this period, there was a replacement of incompetent, unable to cope or simply corrupt regional heads with normal managers, whether connected to the region or not. However, here the connection with voters was lost: because the appointed head was responsible to the president and the local parliament (often just a meeting of various clans of regional elites), but not directly to the residents of his region.

Therefore, in 2012, the third stage began - a return to direct elections. At the same time, the country has actively begun the process of nationalization of the elite as such - weaning it off dual loyalty, living in two countries, and so on. It was not enough to be a good manager; you also had to prove your ability to listen and hear people. And although the same Popular Front in every possible way forced the governors to really work with the population, not everyone listened, and many simply did not know how to do it.

Part of the process of nationalization of the elite was the transition to strategic personnel work with the nomenklatura - they began to cultivate and lead it, select and promote it. This applied to all levels of government, and especially regional ones. The construction of an official's career began - moving him horizontally, from the region to the center and back with a promotion. A similar method was used in the USSR, it is now used in China - but its return to domestic practice has become a landmark moment for the whole personnel policy Kremlin.

Starting in 2016, this work was put on stream. Not just formation personnel reserves and elevators, but also special education and training programs organized with the support of the presidential administration. One of the most famous is a program based on High school government controlled RANEPA. And last year, the “Leaders of Russia” personnel project was launched to involve the most diverse and bright self-nominated people in management work. Considering the federal structure of Russia and our vast expanses, it is clear that the regions are not only the main source for recruiting managers, but also an ideal platform for their testing and growth.

At the same time, we are talking not just about a new wave of gubernatorial calls - but about fundamentally new rules for the formation of regional leadership.

Everyone has already noted that many of the new regional heads took the “Kremlin courses” - but the most important thing is that they got to them not through connections or quotas, but because of their personal qualities.

And, receiving appointments to the regions, they will have to prove their managerial talents to the center not only with report numbers, but also with the ability to build work with regional personnel exactly according to the same principles as the Kremlin built with them.

That is, pull up and rely on honest and caring professionals, and not become dependent on established regional clans and elite groups. And be able to gain people’s trust – not only in elections, but throughout all of your work.

This is a serious move and a completely different level - but this is precisely the goal that Vladimir Putin sets for himself in his personnel work. What is needed is not just a new regional management elite - we need a clearly working mechanism for personnel work with the nomenklatura as such. In which the same heads of regions are no longer just representatives of the regions or Moscow commissars, but part of the all-Russian managerial class. People who can work equally effectively and honestly both in the provinces and in Moscow.

Reshuffles in the gubernatorial corps will follow in other Russian regions, presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov did not rule out in a conversation with Izvestia. On Wednesday, the head of state replaced the leaders of Primorye, Kabardino-Balkaria and the Astrakhan region. Experts interviewed by Izvestia note that society has received a request for updating regional administration, the authorities heard this request, and in a number of regions they have to act manually.

In one day, the head of state reappointed the heads of three subjects at once. In the Primorsky Territory, where the results of the second round of gubernatorial elections were cancelled, the governor of the Sakhalin region Oleg Kozhemyako became the acting head of the region. At a meeting in the Novo-Ogarevo residence near Moscow, he asked Vladimir Putin for permission to participate in the elections in Primorye.

Of course, I would like to agree with you, due to the fact that I am now the current governor of Sakhalin, the possibility of participating in the elections for the governor of the Primorsky Territory - in order to meet the expectations of the residents, and really make sure that the dynamics of development correspond to the tasks that are facing us today Far East,” said Oleg Kozhemyako.

Do you want to go home? - the president asked.

“In principle, yes,” the governor said.

And in response to this, the head of state noted: in order not to lose control in the region, it is necessary to appoint a new leader of Primorye. The current acting Andrei Tarasenko has already “asked for another job,” Vladimir Putin clarified.

It is impossible not only for two months to leave such a significant territory, such an important region for the country as the Primorsky Territory without leadership, but for one day,” the president noted.

On September 26, the governor of the Astrakhan region, Alexander Zhilkin, also left his post. His place was taken by Deputy Head of the Federal Customs Service Sergei Morozov. His experience in this position will be useful in the region, the president believes: the Astrakhan region receives a significant portion of its income from foreign economic activity.

The head of Kabardino-Balkaria, Yuri Kokov, “for family reasons” wanted to move to another job. The president proposed Kazbek Kokov to head the administration of the republic.

It’s not for me to tell you that your family is connected with your native republic in the closest, most intimate way. Your father headed the republic from 1992 to 2005, and there is very kind word about him there, good memory. He was effective leader and a very reliable comrade,” Vladimir Putin emphasized.

The rotation of the governor's corps may also affect other regions, Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia. Vladimir Putin will continue the campaign to renew regional authorities, the presidential press secretary noted.

“If he deems it necessary,” he clarified.

The 2018 gubernatorial elections showed that in conditions of changed public sentiment, the approach to personnel appointments should become more differentiated, noted Alexander Pozhalov, director of the ISEPI Research Foundation.

The President knows Oleg Kozhemyako and Sergei Morozov well from their past jobs, and he is confident in them. The appointment of the acting head of Primorye was forced due to Tarasenko’s defeat in the elections and his failure in relations with local elites, the political scientist believes.

The expert also recalled that Oleg Kozhemyako was a senator from the region and is well aware of the coastal and Far Eastern specifics.

This is an “anti-crisis”, tough and well-proven regional manager. This is the fourth time the President has trusted him with the Far Eastern region,” said Alexander Pozhalov. - As in the Sakhalin region, in Primorye he will have to closely interact with federal business as part of the implementation of large government projects. Oleg Kozhemyako has personal experience participation in election campaigns, which many “technocrats” did not have.

U Russian society there is a request for an update in the regional administration, and the authorities have heard this request, believes Dmitry Orlov, general director of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications (APEC). Somewhere she has to operate in manual mode, he noted.

Kozhemyako managed to rid Sakhalin of many of the corrupt and ineffective practices of the Khoroshavin era and establish interaction with the elite. The Astrakhan region is characterized by “teamwork”, the stability of the elite, associated with former governor Alexander Zhilkin, but this deprived the region and the management system of dynamics. Morozov, being “external” in relation to the Astrakhan region, should ensure this dynamics, Dmitry Orlov told Izvestia.

The appointment of Kazbek Kokov, according to him, is natural for a traditional region with paternalistic views of the population and high clannishness among the elites. The federal center shows that it understands the Caucasian specifics well.

The resignation of Yuri Kokov was expected - there were complaints against him, sociologists recorded his high anti-rating, noted political strategist Dmitry Fetisov.

He failed to establish dialogue with residents, and tensions grew in the region. He could not provide the necessary security measures, and criminal conflicts arose. In addition, Yuri Kokov is already 63 years old,” the political strategist emphasized. - Logical reassignment - his successor is local resident, with connections in the AP and in federal circles.

But Alexander Zhilkin, noted Dmitry Fetisov, was initially a fairly effective governor, under whom the region developed. However, in the last three years, the indicators have become worse: it seemed that “the governor was tired and began to neglect many issues.”

Sergei Morozov will be responsible for building relationships and developing trade turnover between the Caspian countries, the expert explained.

The heads of three more regions – Bashkiria, Kursk region and Trans-Baikal Territory – resigned. Thus, in two weeks the leadership of 11 territories out of 85 changed. In total, this year the government was renewed in 19 subjects of the Federation, and in two years the change affected almost half of the country’s regions. What is the purpose of such unprecedented changes in the regional elite?

The latest resignations affected one of the two long-lived governors - Kursk Alexander Mikhailov, one of the three women - heads of regions Natalya Zhdanova from the Trans-Baikal Territory and the head of one of the largest national republics Rustem Khamitov from Bashkortostan. Putin has already appointed acting responsibilities in Kursk and Ufa - Roman Starovoit and Radiy Khabirov.

As a result, a series of resignations that began on September 26 have already affected 11 regions. And this is in two weeks. And if you look from the beginning of the year, you get 19. But it’s better to take the figure for two years - that’s how much time has passed since the change of the internal political bloc of the Russian Presidential Administration and the arrival of Sergei Kiriyenko. Then there will be 39 regions – that is, almost half of Russia’s 85. And 2018 is not over yet.

That is, we are dealing with a very clear course of the Kremlin towards updating the governor’s corps as such. After all, there have not been such large-scale changes, that is, the replacement of almost half of the heads of regions, since the early 90s, when Boris Yeltsin appointed heads of administrations in the independent Russian Federation that became independent after the collapse of the USSR.

But there such a massive renewal was explained by the need to end the power of the first secretaries of the regional committees of the CPSU, replacing them with officials loyal to the Russian leadership. Now we are talking about something completely different.

Although the system of gubernatorial power in Russia seems to have become established in recent years, we are now witnessing a transition to a completely new stage of its functioning. Before that, she went through three main stages.

Apart from the “zero cycle” with appointments from above (in most regions), which ended by 1996, three main periods can be distinguished.

Direct elections of governors - from the mid-90s to 2004. At this time, there could be no Kremlin personnel work on training governors in principle. Because President Yeltsin and his administration did not carry out any strategic personnel work, not only in the regions, but also in Moscow. And Vladimir Putin’s first term was devoted to restoring controllability of the country as such. Including through training the existing regional elites to comply with federal laws and work in a single vertical of power.

Governor appointments – from 2005 to 2011. During these years, governors were elected by regional legislative assemblies, based on the proposal of the president. Over the years, the governor's corps has been renewed very seriously - in fact, the main goal of this period was to replace incompetent, unable to cope or simply corrupt regional heads with normal managers, whether connected to the region or not. However, here the connection with voters was lost: because the appointed head was responsible to the president and the local parliament (often just a meeting of various clans of regional elites), but not directly to the residents of his region.

Therefore, in 2012, the third stage began - a return to direct elections. At the same time, the country has actively begun the process of nationalization of the elite as such - weaning it off dual loyalty, living in two countries, and so on. It was not enough to be a good manager; you also had to prove your ability to listen and hear people. And although the same Popular Front in every possible way forced the governors to really work with the population, not everyone listened, and many simply did not know how to do it.

Part of the process of nationalization of the elite was the transition to strategic personnel work with the nomenklatura - they began to cultivate and lead it, select and promote it. This applied to all levels of government, and especially regional ones. The construction of an official's career began - moving him horizontally, from the region to the center and back with a promotion. A similar method was used in the USSR, and it is now used in China - but its return to domestic practice became a landmark moment for the entire personnel policy of the Kremlin.

Starting in 2016, this work was put on stream. Not just the formation of personnel reserves and elevators, but also special education and training programs organized with the support of the presidential administration. One of the most famous is the program based at the State Higher School Department of RANEPA. And last year, the “Leaders of Russia” personnel project was launched to involve the most diverse and bright self-nominated people in management work. Considering the federal structure of Russia and our vast expanses, it is clear that the regions are not only the main source for recruiting managers, but also an ideal platform for their testing and growth.

At the same time, we are talking not just about a new wave of gubernatorial calls - but about fundamentally new rules for the formation of regional leadership.

Everyone has already noted that many of the new regional heads took the “Kremlin courses” - but the most important thing is that they got to them not through connections or quotas, but because of their personal qualities.

And, receiving appointments to the regions, they will have to prove their managerial talents to the center not only with report numbers, but also with the ability to build work with regional personnel exactly according to the same principles as the Kremlin built with them.

That is, pull up and rely on honest and caring professionals, and not become dependent on established regional clans and elite groups. And be able to gain people’s trust – not only in elections, but throughout all of your work.

This is a serious move and a completely different level - but this is precisely the goal that Vladimir Putin sets for himself in his personnel work. What is needed is not just a new regional management elite - we need a clearly working mechanism for personnel work with the nomenklatura as such. In which the same heads of regions are no longer just representatives of the regions or Moscow commissars, but part of the all-Russian managerial class. People who can work equally effectively and honestly both in the provinces and in Moscow.

© Photo from the site kremlin.ru

The President of the Russian Federation dismissed the heads of the Astrakhan region Alexander Zhilkin and Kabardino-Balkaria Yuri Kokov and replaced the acting head of Primorye Andrei Tarasenko. Experts believe that about ten more governors remain under threat of replacement, and note that the reshuffle is partly influenced by the results of the September 9 elections.

The past and future resignations of governors affect, first of all, those officials who have held their positions for a long time, says Ilya Grashchenkov, director of the Center for Regional Policy Development. As an expert told a Rosbalt correspondent, the Kremlin continues its policy of installing “technocrats” who will carry out the line of the federal center.

“In Primorye, the expected castling of candidates took place: instead of the failed Andrei Tarasenko, they appointed the Far Easterner Oleg Kozhemyako, who managed to be the governor of both the Amur region and Sakhalin. This is an attempt to win back Primorye from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, but how successful Kozhemyako will be is still a question. The change from Yuri Kokov to Kazbek Kokov in Kabardino-Balkaria is an “intra-teip” reshuffle. However, since Kazbek Kokov comes from the presidential administration, we can say that the line of the federal center in the Caucasus is strengthening. The Astrakhan region, where Alexander Zhilkin was replaced, is an important point on the map, the “gateway of Russia.” Although the governor was coping with matters, he was also replaced by Sergei Morozov, who is closer to the Kremlin,” explained Ilya Grashchenkov.

According to the expert, another 10-15 governors may be rotated during the fall. “What remains under attack are the heads who either have been sitting in their positions for a very long time, or because of their age it is time for them to leave their positions. At risk are the governors of the Altai Republic Alexander Berdnikov, Mordovia Vladimir Volkov, Kursk region Alexander Mikhailov, Lipetsk region Oleg Korolev. There are regions where there is political instability: these are the Murmansk region with governor Marina Kovtun, the Chelyabinsk region with Boris Dubrovsky. There are regions where the economic situation is weak, for example, the Tver region. Despite the fact that Igor Rudenya has been working there as governor not so long ago, his position has weakened significantly. In the Ulyanovsk region, Governor Sergei Morozov showed the worst result in the elections for “ United Russia“. A special question is about Smolensk region, where is the governor Alexey Ostrovsky from the Liberal Democratic Party. Due to the fact that this party has recruited two new governors, the question will arise: should it be deprived of Smolensk. There are several regions where heads can be promoted. A separate question concerns the North Caucasus Federal District. Kokov became the first, but replacements are also possible in a couple of other regions,” Ilya Grashchenkov listed.

During the fall, we should expect replacement of the heads of regions, in which voters will have to elect new governors in a year, says the director of the Institute of Modern economic development Dmitry Solonnikov. As the political scientist said, elections are expected in 15 regions in 2019, and in two more the heads will be elected by legislative bodies. “In the Kursk region, the governor has been in power for quite a long time; there may be questions for him. The situation is the same in the Lipetsk region. There should be elections in the Kurgan region, and in the Altai Republic. In the Stavropol Territory, the current governor has not been in power for long, but there are a number of questions for him regarding his relations with the elites. It is more difficult to say who from this list will not be replaced. Now there are clashes between elite groups and centers of power that may have interests in each region. Some of the governors from this list will remain, but most of will be replaced,” the political scientist believes.

The results of the September 9 elections are forcing the federal center to take a more careful approach to the appointment of new governors in the regions, says political scientist Maxim Zharov. He clarified that the rotation of regional heads in general is planned. The federal center appoints new governors so that they become familiar with the situation in the regions on the spot, have time to work, adapt, and prepare for the elections. However, the approach to the selection of new officials has become less formal.

“As for yesterday’s resignations and appointments, in at least two cases we are talking about the Kremlin reacting to the operational situation in the regions and, in accordance with this, appointing temporary officials. I mean the appointment of Oleg Kozhemyako to replace Andrei Tarasenko in Primorye and the appearance in Kabardino-Balkaria of a new person named Kokov. After the scandalous second rounds happened, the Kremlin will listen more carefully to operational information from the regions where changes of governors are coming,” Maxim Zharov is sure.

The resignations of governors this fall are taking place according to a planned rotation, but they are influenced by the factor of the September 9 elections, he also believes political figure, Director of the Institute of Contemporary Economics Nikita Isaev. “It is important for the Kremlin to ensure a high-quality electoral cycle on the next single voting day. Otherwise, popular protest may even spill over into voting for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Liberal Democratic Party or A Just Russia. While protest sentiments are inside this tub of four parliamentary parties, which, according to by and large, represent one batch. Then the situation may become more dangerous. It is clear that there is fatigue from Alexander Zhilkin in the Astrakhan region. The tension in Kabardino-Balkaria showed that Yuri Kokov was not ready to manage the situation. Well, in Primorye we need a 100% version of elite consolidation and confidence in victory in the elections, so we settled on Oleg Kozhemyako,” said Nikita Isaev.

According to the expert, the socio-economic situation of the region does not play a special role in choosing the governor who will be dismissed. The socio-economic situation in the regions is generally similar, and what is more important is the ability of the head of the region to work and negotiate with local elites. “Governors who should have left soon, or those who are tired of them, will be sent to resign. This is, for example, the governor of the Lipetsk region Oleg Korolev, the Kursk region Alexander Mikhailov. These are also relatively new governors, but those who “don’t handle” the situation: Boris Dubrovsky in Chelyabinsk region, Alexander Berdnikov in the Altai Republic, Marina Kovtun in the Murmansk region. The risks associated with them are quite high, and the Kremlin will take into account mistakes and begin betting on other candidates,” believes Nikita Isaev.

Many governors are already packing their bags, and new managers will take their place. However, changing the boss is unlikely to solve the accumulated problems. The people are tired not so much of specific individuals, but of a system in which they do not influence the decisions of the authorities. Today, too, the federal center appoints new “acting officers” without being interested in the opinions of regional residents.

Dmitry Remizov