Unemployment rate in Belarus. Unemployment has made Belarus a leader in the post-Soviet space

By 19.1 thousand people and reached a level of 1% of the economic active population countries. The increase in the number of unemployed is associated with optimization labor collectives in industry, construction and agriculture. Taking into account the continuation of negative trends and the possible cessation of the activities of entrepreneurs trading in markets, the number of unemployed in 2016 may increase by 2.5-3 times compared to their number on January 1, 2016, experts from “Belarus in Focus” came to such conclusions .

According to Belstat, as of January 1, 2016, the number of registered unemployed in Belarus amounted to 43.3 thousand people, which is 1% of the economically active population of Belarus. As of January 1, 2015, the registered unemployment rate was 0.5%, and the number of unemployed people was 24.2 thousand. In 2015, for the first time in the last few years, the number of unemployed exceeded the number of vacancies in labor and social protection. As of January 1, the number of vacancies was 28.7 thousand offers; a year earlier, the number of vacancies was 33.6 thousand.

The main reason for the change in trends in the labor market was the general situation in the economy. In 2015, there was a decline in industry, investment in construction was reduced, and there was a decline in the consumer market. As a result of optimization of labor collectives in 2015, the number of laid-offs exceeded the number of hired employees by 81.3 thousand people, of which 52.5 thousand people were in industry. In the face of a shortage of jobs, low-paid vacancies in social protection, education and health care were filled. The low level of unemployment benefits—about $10 per month—and the presence of mandatory public works to receive benefits significantly adjust downward the real unemployment rate.

In 2016, the decline in industry will continue, since there are no prerequisites for improvement in the country’s economic situation. There is not a sufficient number of building plots for housing construction, which will lead to further cuts in this area. A decrease in purchasing power will lead to a decrease retail turnover and closing a number of unprofitable stores. A significant part of entrepreneurs trading in markets have suspended their work and will not be able to continue due to possible confiscation of goods and penalties for the lack of a certificate of conformity for the products sold.

Due to the lack of vacancies in the labor market, we can expect a further increase in the number of unemployed. The potential volume of cuts in 2016 may exceed 2015 levels. Taking into account the new requirements for work experience To receive an old-age pension, it will be more difficult for young people to get a job due to the increase in the number of people retirement age, who will hold jobs until they accumulate the necessary length of service for retirement. These factors can lead to an overall increase in the number of unemployed in 2016 in the range of 60-90 thousand people, which will increase the unemployment rate by 2.5-3 times compared to the data at the beginning of 2016.

Thus, in 2015, the number of unemployed people officially registered with labor and social protection authorities doubled. Taking into account the persistence of negative trends in the economy and due to the lack of a decision on the further employment of entrepreneurs trading in markets, the unemployment rate in 2016 may increase by another 2.5-3 times.

At the end of February 2016, the official unemployment rate in Belarus was 1.1% of the country's economically active population. A year earlier, this figure was even 0.8%. Nevertheless, experts argue that in fact there are more unemployed in Belarus. Is this really so, DW found out.

Alarm messages

Already last year, despite the fact that it was a year presidential elections, from various Belarusian enterprises information was constantly received about personnel reductions. For example, at JSC Grodno Azot alone, Europe's largest producer of nitrogen fertilizers, 309 people were laid off, at Grodnopromstroy - 379, and at Grodnooblselstroy - 257 employees. A thousand people were laid off at the Krichevsky cement plant. There are more than a thousand fewer workers at the Minsk Automobile Plant (MAZ).

At the same time, Belstat reports that as of January 1, 2016, the number of officially registered unemployed in the country amounted to 43.3 thousand people. According to experts, if the current trend continues, when many cease their activities individual entrepreneurs, the number of unemployed by the end of this year may increase almost threefold. However, how much do official statistics reflect the real situation?

Who is considered unemployed?

Economist Lev Margolin draws attention to the fact that the methodology for recording the unemployed in Minsk differs significantly from that adopted in the European Union. Only people registered with the employment office are considered unemployed in Belarus. Firstly, the expert points out, there are restrictions on the time spent on such registration. If the period has expired and the unemployed has not chosen a new job from those offered, he is removed from such registration.

Secondly, in order to remain registered, you must participate in community service several days a month. Thirdly, a month an officially unemployed person receives a benefit in the amount of 420 thousand Belarusian rubles (about 20 euros).

“All these circumstances clearly do not encourage people to register with employment services,” explains Margolin. Former Labor Minister Alexander Sosnov points out that unemployment benefits in Belarus are the lowest among former Soviet republics.

Other statistics

According to Lev Margolin, more real indicators employment is given by other statistics. There are 5.5 million people of working age in Belarus, of which only 4.5 million are employed in various fields of activity. It turns out that about a million people, as Margolin puts it, “slip through the fingers of statisticians.”

The majority of the unemployed, continues Lev Margolin, can be divided into three groups. These are those who work abroad, and for the most part illegal. Those who are employed in the so-called gray sector - the provision of services and the production of goods without officially paying taxes. And, finally, Belarusians who live off their subsidiary plots.

“If there was a desire to determine the real number of unemployed in the country, it would be easy to do, but the resulting figures would mean the collapse of the entire system of the so-called socially oriented state, which was created and is still so praised by Alexander Lukashenko,” the economist believes.

Will there be jobs?

The President of Belarus at the last meeting with the government on April 12 demanded the creation of 50 thousand new jobs. “In addition, we will continue to pay close attention to social issues, including youth employment and the creation of new jobs. We will do our best, regardless of any market principles, to demand from managers and create conditions for businesses so that they create jobs," Lukashenko emphasized.

Context

Alexander Sosnov is sure that these are empty words of the head of state: “Our people in power, by virtue of their upbringing and education, imagine that if you give a command, the official will run and create workplace. This is a utopia and rose-colored dreams of narrow-minded people." In fact, continues Sosnov, in order to create new jobs, you must first create conditions for those who can do it. "And Belarusian officials do not know how to do this, as the last twenty-odd years of being in The current leadership of the country is in power,” the ex-minister emphasizes.

Cuts won't save businesses

According to Lev Margolin, staff reductions at state-owned enterprises occur because too much has accumulated in warehouses. finished products. It is not for sale, because, as Margolin put it, the main sales market - Russia - is in the same depressed state.

The only way to sell such products is to reduce their cost, the economist advises. “But in our conditions it is possible to really reduce costs only at the expense of wages. And this means that we need to reduce either average earnings worker, or the number of such people. And enterprises now use both of these methods,” states Margolin. In turn, Alexander Sosnov is confident that staff reductions will not improve the situation, “because public sector enterprises are by definition ineffective.”

In terms of unemployment growth rates, Belarus has become a leader in the CIS. Behind Last year the number of officially registered unemployed in the country increased by 37.1%. But in terms of the amount of benefits paid to the unemployed, Belarus remains an outsider.

Rising unemployment against the background of a cartoon

According to the CIS Statistics Committee as of April 1, in Belarus over the past 12 months the growth rate of the number of unemployed was the highest in comparison with other states of the post-Soviet space.

So, if in Belarus the number of unemployed increased by 37.1%, then in Kazakhstan - by 23%, in Moldova - by 22.8%, in Armenia - by 11.5%, in Azerbaijan - by 11%, in Russia - by 6%. In Tajikistan (as of March 1), the number of unemployed decreased by 0.6%, in Kyrgyzstan - by 2.1%, in Ukraine - by 7.7%.

*data as of April 1, 2016
**data as of March 1, 2016
Source: CIS Statistics Committee

A comparison of Belarus with other post-Soviet countries in terms of the amount of benefits paid to the unemployed is also very revealing. If in Azerbaijan the unemployed receive benefits in the amount of $162 per month, in Moldova - $69, in Ukraine - $59, then in Belarus - only $13.

By the way, the subsistence level budget, which takes into account the minimum set of food products necessary to maintain health, is set in Belarus at 1.64 million rubles (the equivalent is about $80). Thus, unemployment benefits today are only about 15% of the subsistence level budget.

Although in many countries unemployment benefits are tied to the amount wages and is one of the most important measures to support the unemployed.

“This is the social protection institution that should help the unemployed survive a difficult period. The size of the current benefit, which is about 260 thousand rubles, is a caricature of the institution that should protect people in case of job losses», - says senior researcher at the Center for Socio-Economic Research (CASE Belarus) Vladimir Valetko.

The rise in unemployment in the country is due to the unfavorable economic situation. At the same time, the expert notes that since unemployment benefits are purely nominal, people who have lost their jobs do not have much motivation to register as unemployed.

In this regard, Belarusian economists believe that the real scale of unemployment is reflected not by official statistics (as of May 1 - 1.2% of the economically active population), but by data from a sample survey of households, which make it possible to estimate the scale of hidden unemployment. Such household surveys in Belarus have been conducted by the National Statistical Committee since 2012, but their results are classified.

“Of course, unemployment data collected from household sample surveys more accurately reflects the unemployment situation in the country. The only figure from these surveys, which became public in 2012 thanks to the National Bank, indicated that our unemployment rate was already 5.3%,”- recalls Vladimir Valetko.

According to the International Labor Organization, in 2014 unemployment in Belarus was 5.9%. Today, experts believe, the unemployment rate has increased even more. Indirect data allows us to observe this trend.

Thus, according to the latest official data, in March 56 thousand workers were fired, and only 40.2 thousand people were employed.

“Thus, the number of laid-off workers was filled in March by only 71% with newly hired workers. In January this figure was 83%, in February - 84%. From these dynamics it is clear that the employment situation in the first quarter worsened,”- notes Vladimir Valetko.

World experience that Belarus does not use

Experts from Belarusian research organizations state that the population is experiencing serious difficulties finding employment. At the same time, observers assume that the situation on the labor market will remain tense, since the state is now engaged in enterprises, which is highly likely to lead to a decrease in employment in the real sector.

In this regard, Belarusian economists believe, it is necessary to create real mechanisms for social protection of the population, since the current size of the benefit is extremely little consolation for the unemployed.

“If we talk about the long term, we can talk about introducing an unemployment insurance system. Such a system, which was successfully applied in Chile, assumes that not only the state and the employer, but also the employee are involved in the formation of a so-called safety net in case of loss. places of work», - says an expert from the Belarusian Economic Research and Educational Center (BEROC) Maria Akulova.

The mentioned mechanism provides that in case of loss of work, the unemployed person receives benefits from a state source for the first five months, and then from his own accumulated funds. As Chilean practice has shown, this insurance mechanism increases the level of interest in accelerated employment.

“However, this mechanism can only be implemented in conditions of long-term macroeconomic stability, therefore in Belarus it can only be considered as potentially possible,”- Maria Akulova clarifies.

In the short term, the economist believes, the amount of unemployment benefits should be increased to provide support to people left without work, and at the same time create favorable conditions to stimulate self-employment of the population.

“Instead of subsidizing ineffective state-owned enterprises, the released funds can be used to stimulate self-employment of the population. This experience is quite popular and has been successfully applied in Germany. It involves the payment of a certain subsidy for the creation and development of a business, as well as the provision of tax holidays for a fixed period,”- explained Maria Akulova.

So far, the Belarusian government has not made any breakthrough decisions in this direction. There are not even concrete plans to increase unemployment benefits. In conditions where complete data on unemployment is hidden, the state can pretend that there is no need for change.

What happened?

Belarusians learned the level of actual unemployment for the fourth time in modern times economic history. This happened for the first time in 1999. That year, the first population census took place in Belarus after the collapse of the USSR. Then there was triple-digit inflation, plurality exchange rates and a salary of 40 dollars. Against the backdrop of such economic problems, an unemployment rate of 6.2% of the economically active population (according to census data) could hardly surprise anyone. Officially registered unemployment in 1999 was almost three times lower - 2.2%.

We waited 10 years for the next figure - until the next census. 2009 was also not far away perfect year. The first currency crisis since 2000. Deep decline in exports and domestic demand. Significant deterioration in terms of trade in petroleum products. In such conditions, the unemployment rate was 6.1% against the background of 0.86% officially registered.

The National Bank published the actual unemployment figure for the third time. This was in 2012. The Household Employment Survey had just begun, the economy was growing only on solvents and was gradually recovering from the deepest currency crisis of 2011. The National Bank published the May result of a new Belstat survey - 5.6% of the economically active population. Officially registered unemployed people at that time were a very rare species - they accounted for only 0.65% of the economically active population.

Finally, today Belstat published data for 2016. Last year, 5.8% of the economically active population were unemployed.

What then does the official figure of 1% of the economically active population mean?

Let's understand the definitions. The economically active population is those people who work (employed) or do not work but are actively looking for work (unemployed). If everything is more or less clear with the employed, then with the unemployed it is not entirely clear. According to the official version, the unemployed are people who have received unemployed status from the employment assistance service. That is, the figure to which we are accustomed is the level of officially registered unemployment.

In censuses and household employment surveys, Belstat uses the internationally accepted definition of the International Labor Organization. According to this definition, an unemployed person is someone who (a) self-identifies as unemployed, (b) is actively looking for work, and (c) is ready to begin work in as soon as possible(in the next 2 weeks). Since not all such people are registered in Belarus, the number of actual unemployed in our country is traditionally higher than the number of registered unemployed.

Why have there always been more unemployed people in Belarus than were registered?

The main reason is the too small amount of unemployment benefits, which can be received for no more than 6 months. For example, if registered unemployed people had to pay a “tax on parasites,” then the benefits would not be enough. But not all registered unemployed people receive it, but about half of them. You also need to participate in community service to receive benefits. In fact, the costs of obtaining the status of registered unemployed exceed the benefits, so unemployed Belarusians prefer to do without registration.

By the way, in some countries even those who work (in the shadow sector) join the labor exchange - the benefits there are higher than ours, and there is no requirement to participate in public works. Therefore, sometimes registered unemployment exceeds actual unemployment, which, by the way, also indicates shortcomings in the “design” of social protection for the unemployed.

If we have been fed deliberately underestimated data for so long, can we trust the new figures from Belstat?

Can. The Household Employment Survey is based on standard Labor Force Survey methodology. The World Bank helped us develop and implement the survey. The survey covers 7 thousand households quarterly, or 28 thousand households per year - not a single organization engaged in the study public opinion in Belarus, does not do anything comparable in scope. It is on the basis of such data that labor market research is carried out and recommendations are prepared for socio-economic policy around the world.

Sensation! There is high unemployment in Belarus!

In some ways this is truly a sensation. With such a prolonged downturn, many expected unemployment to be a couple of percentage points higher. But in fact, our unemployment rate is comparable to Russia (there at the end of 2016 it was 5.4%), much less than in Ukraine (9.6% in the 3rd quarter of 2016), Latvia (9.8% in 3 quarter of 2016), Lithuania (7.5% at the end of 2016) and even slightly less than in Poland (6% at the end of 2016). This means that business adapted to the crisis not only (and not so much) through a reduction in employment, but also through a reduction in wages. And also that Belarusians are really actively looking for work. Similar mechanisms operated in the labor market in Russia.

What difference does it make how many are unemployed? It still won’t affect economic policy...

Indeed, all official documents so far have been oriented towards officially published indicator - the number of registered unemployed. Based on this figure, budget expenditures were planned to support the unemployed and promote employment. A good example consequences of using data on registered rather than actual unemployment - the emergence of a decree on “social dependency”. If at the time the authors assessed the situation, they had taken into account the number of 200-250 thousand unemployed, and not 40 thousand, then the decree might not have appeared.

That is, open recognition of the fact that unemployment in Belarus is noticeably higher than 1% can and should become a reason for revising the employment promotion strategy, budget and social protection legislation. And one more small step towards building public trust in the government.

Unemployment is a phenomenon in which the economically active population, who wants and can work, is unable to find paid work.

Exist several types of unemployment:

• forced;
• By at will;
• structural;
• institutional;
• unstable;
• friction;
• marginal;
• youth;
• registered;
• hidden.

To identify a person as unemployed, age from ten to seventy-two years is taken into account. international standards, and from fifteen to seventy-two according to the methodology of the Statistical Bureau of the Russian Federation, as well as not being employed, lack of work, being in search of employment, readiness to begin performing work duties in the future.

In order to determine the unemployment rate, which is an indicator of the number of unemployed, the ratio of the unemployed to the total active population is calculated and reflected as a percentage.

In turn, employed persons are considered to be: hired workers of working age, entrepreneurs, workers family business, employers, members of cooperatives, collective farmers, working pensioners, as well as people who are working but have not yet reached working age.

The employment coefficient reflects the difference between the number of employed people to the total number of economically active population.

The natural rate of unemployment is what the term “full employment” means. However, in this case, natural unemployment is not identical to the absence of unemployment as such. Natural level unemployment can be defined as an economic situation in which there is no cyclical unemployment, but there is frictional and structural unemployment.

Prerequisites for natural unemployment can be factors such as lack of information, artificial barriers in legislation, bureaucracy, demographic changes and much more. It is not possible to change the situation with natural unemployment in the short term; long-term economic transformations are necessary.

Unemployment as an economic phenomenon also has negative social consequences. After all, a person whose income has significantly decreased, as well as a loss of qualifications, is doomed to psychosomatic reactions. And this, in turn, will inevitably result in social frigidity and worthlessness. And the latter is already fraught with an increase in suicidal and criminal cases. So, according to the famous academician Russian Academy Sciences Victor Ivanter, an unemployed person, even if he receives unemployment benefits, becomes dangerous to society.

Unemployment rate in Belarus

If we talk about unemployment in Belarus, then apparently our country has something to be proud of. Thus, according to the latest data, at the beginning of the new year, the rate of officially registered unemployed reached an incredible minimum. However, what is real unemployment in the country?

Registered unemployed in the Republic of Belarus in 2015-2016. (thousands of people)

			2016 to 2015, %
September

according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus

Registered unemployed in the Republic of Belarus in 2016-2017. (thousands of people)

			2017 to 2016,%
September

Registered unemployed in the Republic of Belarus in 2017-2018. (thousands of people)

			2018 versus 2017, %
		11,7
	15,2	10,5	69,1
	14,8	10,7	72,3
	13,2	9,4	71,2
	10,6	8,2	77,4
	12	9,2	76,7
September	11	8,9	80,9
	12,3	10,5	85,4
	10,9	9,3	85,3
	8,7	6,9	79,3

according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus

Registered unemployed in the Republic of Belarus in 2018-2019. (thousands of people)

			2019 to 2018, %
	11,7	9,8	83,8
	10,6		84,9
	10,3		79,6
	10,5	8,8	83,8
	10,7	7,7	71,9
	9,4	7	74,5
	8,2	7	85,4
	9,2	7,1	77,2
September	8,9	7,8	87,6
	10,5	8,1	77
	9,3
	6,9

according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus

The low unemployment rate in Belarus in 2014 can be partly explained by the fact that many unemployed citizens do not want to register with employment services or stock exchanges. The reason is the mockingly low amount of the benefit, which has a time factor and is paid only during the first six months. In addition, in order to receive a meager benefit, the unemployed is required to take part in social work, for example, picking potatoes on collective farm fields, or cleaning streets and courtyards.

Norway is not familiar with such a social and economic phenomenon. In this Scandinavian country, unemployment benefits are paid for life if a person does not want to work. In this case, the benefit amount is equivalent to one and a half thousand. For that kind of money, Norwegians can live in the countries of Southeast Asia for six months, as respected and wealthy people.

According to the National Statistical Bureau of Belarus, as of January 1, 2015, the unemployment rate in the Republic of Belarus dropped to 0.5 percent. In quantitative terms, the number of officially unemployed was almost twenty-five thousand people. Official data is far from the actual unemployment rate in the country.

Many experts agree that the reluctance of the unemployed to officially register with the labor exchange due to low benefits, including the former Minister of Labor of the Republic of Belarus Alexandra Sosnova. Thus, unemployment benefits in Minsk in February 2014 amounted to 112 thousand 400 rubles, which at that time corresponded to 11 US dollars.

As mentioned above, another reason for the reluctance of the unemployed to officially register is forced labor. Although, according to the convention of the International Labor Organization, such actions are prohibited in principle. In our country, this convention has already been ratified, which does not interfere government agencies continue to involve the unemployed in public works.

What else needs to be determined is the full-employment unemployment rate, which will provide a picture of natural unemployment. However, at the national statistical office, such figures are for internal use only and are not made public.

However, as in any third country in the world, Belarus has found its own special way to combat unemployment. We are talking about introducing a tax on the unemployed in 2015.

At the end of 2016, the number of officially registered unemployed people in Belarus amounted to 35.3 thousand people. This figure is 18.5% less than at the end of 2015, and 1.4% less than at the end of November 2016. According to the National Statistical Committee, the level of registered unemployment at the end of 2015 was 1% of the economically active population of Belarus, and at the end of 2016 - 0.8%. However, the actual unemployment rate published by Belstat based on a sample survey of households amounted to 5.8% in 2016 (257.1 thousand people from the economically active population).

According to data as of January 1, 2017, the labor market tension coefficient in Belarus decreased from 1.5 to 1 unemployed per vacancy compared to January 1, 2016.

As of December 1, 2018, 14.2 thousand people were registered as unemployed, which is 41.1% less unemployed than as of December 1, 2017 (24.1 thousand people). The registered unemployment rate was 0.3% and decreased by 0.3% compared to the same period (0.6%).

Registered unemployment as of January 1, 2019 was 0.3% and compared to January 1, 2018 (0.5%) decreased by 0.2%.

As of November 1, 2019, the registered unemployment rate was 0.3% of the labor force and did not change compared to the period of November 1, 2018 (it was 0.3%). The coefficient of tension in the labor market in the country was 0.1 unemployed per vacancy.

In general, 2019 is characterized by an increase in demand for labor. As of November 1, 2019, the labor, employment and social protection authorities received information about the availability of 92.4 thousand vacancies, which was 14.6% more than the same period of the previous year (80.6 thousand).

according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Belarus

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