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Federal Agency for Education

Bryansk State Technical University

Department of Economics, Production Organization, Management

COURSE WORK

discipline: Statistics

on the topic of: Analysis of transport services in the Russian Federation

Performed:

Student, group 10-FK2

Petukhova V.Yu.

Checked by: Ph.D., Associate Professor.

Novikova A.V.

Bryansk 2012

annotation

In this course work was carried out statistical research Russian transport services market. The main goal of the work is to consolidate and deepen theoretical knowledge, practical skills, their use for calculating and analyzing the main indicators of the transport services market obtained in the process of studying statistics, as well as developing the ability to generalize the results that will be obtained from available statistical data.

The course work consists of two parts:

· the first part is devoted to the study of the theoretical foundations of transport services: types and functions, indicators (freight turnover, passenger turnover, etc.) of activity, prospects for its development.

· in the second part, the calculation and analysis of the main indicators of transport services is carried out based on the studied statistical techniques and methods, such as summary and grouping, calculation of absolute, relative and average values, calculation of dynamics indicators, alignment of time series, etc.

Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical basis transport services market research

1.1 Formation of the transport services market

1.2 Structure and features of the transport services market

1.3 Classification, functions of the transport services market

1.4 Problems and prospects for the development of the transport services market

Chapter 2. Calculation and analysis of indicators of the transport services market in the Russian Federation

2.1 Grouping

2.2 Calculation of averages

2.3 Relative values

2.4 Variation indicators

2.5 Dynamic series

2.6 Selective observation

2.8 Correlation and regression analysis

Conclusion

Bibliography

Applications

Introduction

To effectively manage the transport services market and make decisions on its further organization, data is needed that comprehensively reflects the development of this industry under the influence of various external factors. In a market economy, it is important to achieve an optimal ratio of costs to quality of service for the consumer of services. The latter is attracted by minimum delivery times, maximum safety of cargo, convenience in receiving and delivering cargo and the ability to obtain reliable information about tariffs, conditions of transportation and location of cargo, and then he is ready to bear the corresponding costs. Transport activities should be based on customer needs. The consumer is not interested in the costs of the transport company for providing services. With the tightening of consumer requirements for the quality of goods, the needs of manufacturers for timely and reliable delivery are increasingly increasing.

Relevance this study consists in quantitative indicators corresponding to the disclosure of the structure of the transport services market. Since transport is not just one of the sectors of the country’s economy, but also one of the most essential conditions for the successful functioning of the entire economy, which has an active impact on the formation of territorial proportions of the development of production in the country and regions, its study is an important task for statistics.

The purpose of this work is to conduct a statistical analysis of the transport services market in the Russian Federation, taking into account the peculiarities of its formation and functioning. To achieve the set goal of the work, it is necessary to solve the following tasks: study the theoretical essence and system of indicators corresponding to this topic; analyze relevant development indicators; The objects of accounting in transport services market statistics are the transportation of passengers and cargo by various types of transport.

Based on this, the subject of research in this work is such indicators of transport activity as passenger and freight turnover, and the density of communication routes.

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations for studying the transport services market

1.1 Formirovanietransport services market

From the perspective of a systems approach, transport represents a complex adaptive economic system, consisting of regional material and human flows interconnected in a single process of transport services. It can be argued that since the 1970s, there has been an organic fusion of freight transport with the production and distribution process, its transformation into a link in a single system “production - transport-distribution - sales”. Russia is at a new stage of its development - the stage of formation of its new social structure. The further development of the Russian Federation at this stage largely depends on the magnitude of its economic potential.

As planning principles weakened, the need arose for the country's economy to transition to market relations. The Russian economy, as the material base for the ongoing social reconstruction, is a complex set of industries.

One of the most important sectors of the Russian economy, where it is necessary to use innovative methods in management is transport.

The structure of internal and external cargo flows, which has changed dramatically over the last decade, the gradual overcoming of the consequences of the systemic crisis of the 90s and the entry into a trajectory of sustainable economic growth, required clarification of the priorities for the development of the Russian transport system and new strategy increasing the competitiveness and efficiency of the transport industry.

For many years, transport infrastructure has developed without proper coordination between individual modes of transport and development productive forces, which led to direct losses from the implementation of untimely or ineffective projects and did not allow achieving a systemic effect in the operation of transport.

First of all, road transport receives priority development, because It is he who is the connecting element between all other types of transport and consumers of transport services. In addition, the construction of transport arteries of other types of transport is impossible without the participation of automobiles. But road transport consists of at least two technical elements: the road and the car, the development of which is in constant dialectical unity and interdependence. In this case, the primary road is the road.

Road facilities are also included in the transport complex.

The peculiarity is that highways are used by transport, industrial, construction, agricultural and other organizations, as well as by the population, free of charge. Their wear and tear is not included in the cost of transportation, but is reimbursed by directly financing the costs of repair work on roads at established tax rates through road funds.

Therefore, in the road sector there is no direct relationship between the amount of funds allocated for the maintenance, repair and construction of roads and the rate of consumption of roads by road transport, as is the case in reproduction processes in other industries National economy.

One of the first measures of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation to form a system for regulating transport activities on the territory of the republics in the context of the transition to a market economy was the creation of the Russian Transport Inspectorate (RTI) - a body designed to license transport and service enterprises included in the transport and road complex of the republic, to control compliance with transport legislation and the requirements imposed by issued licenses, as well as carry out a number of other functions related to ensuring the normal functioning of the transport services market.

The initial task of RTI units was licensing of transport activities. At the same time, the licensing process was not, and could not be, observed, the main functions of the RTI bodies:

Restricting or stimulating the influx of transport into certain sectors of the regional transport services market;

Determination of additional benefits and formation of special conditions for enterprises and entrepreneurs engaged in socially significant transportation;

Application of sanctions to transport enterprises for violation of licensing requirements, etc.

The transport complex consists of a large number of interrelated industries and is a special transport sector of production, which has common laws of development, homogeneity production processes and the purpose of the products being created.

And the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation in market conditions poses a number of problems for road transport to adapt to a market economy. Characteristics functioning of motor transport in a market economy are such objective circumstances as:

new economic conditions operation of road transport and consumers of its services,

formation of the transport services market,

increased competition between transport enterprises and various modes of transport.

Without taking into account market requirements, no enterprise can develop normally. The ultimate goal of any transport enterprise operating in a market environment is to make a profit based on the production of a service needed by the consumer.

Until the 90s, the concept of transport service was not used in the practice of planning and organizing the work of road transport. The exception was such a field of activity as transport and forwarding services, where this concept is generally accepted.

This approach was due to the traditional consideration of road transport on a par with manufacturing industries. Transport services refer to services that complete and (or) precede the process of material production. Transport services are defined as a subtype of transport activity aimed at meeting the needs of consumers and characterized by the presence of the necessary technological, financial, information, legal and resource support. The service, therefore, means not only the actual transportation of goods, but also any operation that is not part of the transportation process, but is associated with its preparation and implementation.

Road transport services include:

transportation of goods, mail;

loading and unloading services (loading, unloading, reloading, internal warehouse operations);

cargo storage services;

services for preparing vehicles for transportation;

provision of transportation vehicles on lease or rental terms;

forwarding and additional services performed during the transportation of goods, luggage, etc. for servicing enterprises, organizations, and the population;

transportation of new and repaired vehicles, etc.

The share of transport services as the economy develops, as a rule, increases or stabilizes. A similar situation can be observed in almost all countries. Thus, in market conditions, quality is defined as the level consumer properties and reliability of the service, which the market (consumer) needs and which manufacturers are able to provide at an affordable price. In a market economy, it is important to achieve an optimal ratio of costs to quality of service for the consumer of services. Transport activities should be based on customer needs. The consumer is not interested in the costs of the transport company for providing services.

Over the last two decades of the last century and the beginning of this century, the share of transport costs in developed countries has not changed significantly. In absolute terms, transport costs continued to increase. Consequently, there are currently no qualitative changes in consumer preferences for transport - the recipients’ needs for services of this type have developed at an optimal level, corresponding to a high degree of satisfaction.

The development of a competitive market for transport services will require creating conditions for the supply of high-quality transport services to exceed demand, as well as ensuring publicity and information openness of the market regarding prices and quality of services. This will provide consumers with the opportunity to freely choose transport services, make the price-quality mechanism work, and make price and quality the subject of competition. This mechanism will ensure a constant increase in productivity transport companies, which will contribute to their self-sufficiency. The price-quality mechanism will stimulate market participants to study demand for various categories of services and analyze the level of competitors, improve the quality of transport services provided, and find the optimal balance between their price and quality. All this creates conditions for further increasing operational efficiency and increasing the competitiveness of national transport companies and the Russian transport system as a whole.

The state policy of forming a competitive market for transport services provides for administrative and economic methods.

Administrative methods must ensure regulation of activities natural monopolies, access of vehicle owners, as well as forwarders and carriers to professional activities using licensing or declaration mechanisms (notification of market participant obligations).

Economic methods for creating a competitive market for transport services include the implementation of tax, tariff and investment policy mechanisms.

Economic methods should stimulate the creation of forwarding and transport companies of all types and levels in the field of freight and passenger transportation, which could provide competitive transport services in the field of freight and passenger transportation. In particular, it is advisable to consider a mechanism for stimulating the creation of sufficiently large transport companies capable of investing in the development of highly efficient transport technologies and modern vehicles. It is necessary to ensure state support increasing the competitiveness of national transport companies.

In the context of rapidly increasing inter-country trade flows and movement of people, the importance of all types of transport is sharply increasing. Trade in transport services covers almost all countries and is one of the catalysts for ongoing globalization. Improving transport infrastructure and reducing transportation costs under the influence of scientific and technical progress makes it possible to intensify trade and economic cooperation between geographically distant regions and leads to a reduction in the costs of spatial organization of international economic systems. In the process of deepening Russia's integration into the world economy, the role of domestic transport cannot be underestimated.

The transport industry is extremely important for the development of the economy and foreign economic relations of our country. On the one hand, transport is a key infrastructure component foreign trade goods, and on the other hand, a large and growing item of trade in services, providing about a quarter of all Russian foreign trade turnover in the service sector. Russia has favorable natural and geographical conditions for increasing international transport operations, which is an important prerequisite for obtaining significant economic benefits from these operations. But they do not fully ensure the international competitiveness of Russian transport. To strengthen Russia's position in the world market, it is necessary to create a modern transport infrastructure and radical organizational restructuring of the entire transport system of our country.

Occupying the central part of the Eurasian continent, Russia objectively plays the role of a geopolitical bridge in relations between the countries of the West and the East. Its simultaneous presence in Europe and Asia affects the content of economic, political, and cultural processes in these parts of the world. Occupying a huge space, having access to the seas, using large territory for international transit, as well as having a system of space, air, and sea navigation, Russia thanks to this has unique opportunities to participate in international integration and influence global processes.

Transit makes it possible to effectively use the reserves of carrying capacity of national transport systems and stimulates their reproduction and improvement. As a consequence of this, transport engineering and its supporting industries are actively developing.

IN general case the use of national pipeline transport, power transmission systems for transporting gas, oil products and electricity from one country to another through the territory of the Russian Federation is also an essential element of the country’s transit potential. Transit should be considered not only as part of the business contributing to GDP, but important element international positioning of the country. Russia has its own niche in the global transit business.

1.2 Structure, peculiaritiestransport services market

New economic conditions have expanded the concept of “transport service”. Today, a transport service means not only the actual transportation of goods or passengers, but any operation that is not part of the transportation process, but is associated with its preparation and implementation.

Transport services include:

· transportation of goods and passengers;

· loading and unloading operations;

· cargo storage;

· preparation of transportation means;

· provision of transportation means on a lease or rental basis;

· transportation (delivery) of new and repaired vehicles;

· forwarding services;

· other services.

In the general relationships of transport with other subsystems of the national economy, it is especially important to identify shifts in the type structure of transport and the type structure of transportation. When studying structural changes in transport itself in the species aspect, the socio-spatial role of its automobile component is most noticeable; It is road transport that is closest to the everyday needs and actions of people.

The fact is that means of transport, focused mainly on long-distance trunk communications and transportation, provide mainly the resource and production sphere of the functioning of society. Under the influence of motor transport, forms of settlement and daily movements of the population are changing. Vehicles are all in to a greater extent becomes a socio-technical means of self-organization of the population and economy.

In conditions of transition to market relations and the ongoing decline in production, it is important to understand what structure-forming processes occur in transport in general, what is the relationship between the motor transport component and the national economy.

The structure of transport is understood as the composition, quantitative relationships and forms of interconnection of individual industries and productions. Indicators of industry structure are: the number of independent industries; the ratio of all types of transport in the total volume of cargo transportation of the entire transport complex; share of transport sectors; share of passenger and freight transport.

In the practice of planning and accounting, the sectoral structure of transport is determined by finding specific gravity industries in the total volume of transport production. The structure of the country's transport complex is formed under the influence of many factors, the most important of which are:

scientific and technical progress;

planned rates of development of all transport and its individual sectors;

concentration, specialization, cooperation and combination of production;

growth in the material well-being and cultural level of workers;

socio-historical conditions in which transport develops;

international division of labor;

strengthening Russia's position in the world market.

Transport specialization is expressed in the splitting of existing industries and the creation of new industries with homogeneous products or services, as well as in the division of labor between enterprises in a given industry.

At the dawn of the existence of railways, the track development of stations and hauls, the locomotive fleet, and, to a large extent, service personnel were not specialized by type of activity. However, the beginnings of specialization in some parts of transport were already present in that period. The further railway transport developed, the more clearly the specialization of its main elements became apparent, the longer their operational and technical differentiation took. Over time, railway transport in its organization, technology and technical equipment is moving further and further away from its original state, specialization is increasingly spreading to areas of transport that have not yet been covered by it. If you go beyond the boundaries of railway transport and look at the transport system as a whole, then within it the specialization of individual modes of transport also becomes increasingly clear, and the areas of the most effective use of railway, road, water, air and pipeline transport are more clearly delineated.

Since the transportation process in very rare cases begins and ends within any one type of transport, cooperation of activities occurs in the transport system simultaneously with specialization different types transport.

Due to specialization, the transport system gains greater productivity, and through cooperation, greater flexibility, stability in changing conditions and, therefore, greater efficiency.

Alternation is fundamental different phases in the development of the transport system - specialization and cooperation - in the absence of a sufficiently definite pattern in the duration of individual phases in time and the depth of the changes occurring, it is extremely difficult to formalize the processes of development of transport as a whole and its individual parts.

To use one or a combination of several modes of transport in transportation, it is necessary to carefully study various factors that reveal both the advantages of any transport service option and limit the area of interchangeability of modes of transport, where the choice of option is based on technical and economic calculations.

Thus, the features of the transport services market are:

· intangible nature of transport products, like any service (impossibility of accumulating “in reserve”, coincidence of production and sales processes, etc.);

· spatial separation of transport service delivery areas, their non-interchangeability, which limits intra-industry (on one type of transport) competition;

· universality and mass character of the transport market in society, its monopoly;

· the role of railway transport in the transport market largely depends on its versatility, productivity, placement of communications, level of technical equipment, carrying capacity, cost, convenience and safety of transportation. These indicators characterize the volume and quality of transport service offerings;

· the demand for them for freight transportation is formed by socially necessary needs for material exchange. The ratio of supply and demand for transport services by mode of transport determines the level of participation of each of them in the operation of the transport system and at the same time is an incentive for their development .

1.3 TOclassification, functions of the transport services market

There are different classifications of transport services. Based on the relationship with the main activities of enterprises, services can be transportation (i.e., including in one form or another an element of transportation) and non-transportation services. Based on the type of consumer to whom the service is provided, a distinction is made between external (provided by a non-transport enterprise) and internal (provided by another transport enterprise). Based on the nature of the activities related to the provision of a particular service, technological, commercial, informational, etc. are distinguished.

A scientifically based classification of transport sectors is important for proper planning production and ensuring a certain proportionality in its development. The classification of transport sectors is based on the following principles:

economic purpose of the service provided;

the nature of the functioning of transport products in the production process;

the nature of the impact on the subject of work, etc.

Most important principle The classification of industries is the economic purpose of the service provided. In accordance with this, all transport is divided into external and internal.

Since transport is used not only for external transport, but also for internal transport, i.e. transportation within production, then in addition to public transport, the national economy has intra-production or departmental transport . The transport complex of the Russian Federation includes: road, sea, inland waterway, railway, aviation and other types of transport. Each type of transport has its own specifics regarding its use for transporting goods.

In the process of material production, transport satisfies the transportation needs of sectors of the national economy. various types: intra-production, inter-industry within the region, inter-regional, transportation of workers, etc.

Types of transport are divided into water(sea and river), land (rail, road, pipeline) and air. All types of transport, except pipelines, are used to transport goods and passengers. These types of transport are traditional. Non-traditional types of transport include slurry pipelines (Bulk cargo is crushed and pumped through pipes together with water), pneumatic transport, and magnetic levitation transport.

Interdistrict and intradistrict transportation of goods and passengers determine the division of regional transport into mainline and intradistrict.

Transport functions:

One of the main functions is stimulating . Stimulation of economic growth is realized through investments in the transport complex.

· Distributive - ensuring the physical movement of commodity flows in the global economic system.

· The integration function of transport is implemented through the formation of a unified network of transport routes.

· Also performs a structure-forming function - participates in the formation of the sectoral structure of world production and inter-sectoral proportions.

· Social function transport - providing equal access to social and economic infrastructure to all members of society through increasing the degree of transport accessibility.

The so-called “unified transport system” of Russia is characterized by such features as:

1) uneven development various types transport;

2) extremely uneven placement transport network for individual regions;

3) weak interdependence and interaction of individual modes of transport when carrying out transportation (of goods and passengers);

4) a high level of monopolization of the transport services market combined with administrative pressure on economic agents, which dismembers the unified transport system.

1. 4 Problems and prospectsdevelopment of the transport services market

Transport policy priorities should be based on the following principles:

acceleration of Russia's inclusion in existing system international division labor by encouraging industries and enterprises that produce products that are actually and potentially competitive on the world market;

encouraging industries and enterprises that lead to the appearance on the market of fundamentally new goods (works, services) and goods with improved consumer and performance characteristics, allowing them to expand their positions in existing product markets and conquer new ones;

encouraging the withdrawal and conversion of capacity, production reduction, liquidation of enterprises in unpromising industries on the basis of national, sectoral and regional programs;

harmonization state standards RF with international standards, and, above all, the standards of the European Union;

improving the regulatory framework for transport policy;

regulation of prices (tariffs) for products (services) of natural monopolies.

An important role is given to the development of the transport complex infrastructure, which ensures improved quality of service.

Proportionality in the development of production and transport is the correspondence of the throughput and carrying capabilities of the region's transport system to its needs for the transportation of goods and passengers.

Features of the territorial location of production and consumption, the level of specialization and integrated development of the economy of economic regions determine the features of transport and economic relations, their scale and direction. The composition and sequence of justification for the development and placement of transport in the region includes:

analysis of the territorial organization of the economy with identification of features of the production profile economic region, its place in the interregional division of labor, existing transport and economic relations;

determination of inter-district, foreign trade and intra-district transport and economic relations, freight and passenger flows for the billing period;

distribution of transportation work between modes of transport, taking into account technical and economic features and areas of economically feasible use in the specific conditions of a given area;

a comparable analysis of the size of upcoming transportation and the availability of carrying capacity of transport lines in this direction with the identification of excess cargo flows compared to the carrying capacity;

feasibility studies of measures to develop and improve the region’s transport network on a scale that ensures the development of the expected increase in the transportation of goods and passengers;

justification of the necessary costs for the development of the region’s transport network and their economic efficiency.

The formulation of the problem of the principles and forms of functioning of the transport sector is not new for scientific economic thought. The formation of views on transport as a separate, independently functioning sector of the economy was first noted in the works of K. Marx. Subsequently, numerous works by both domestic and foreign economists were also devoted to these issues - E.A. Zhukova, A.I. Abramova, M.V. Pleshakova, A.S. Drobysheva, V.B. Kondratyeva, L.F. Sukhova, V.N. Filina, D. Drew, M. Clark, P. Hall, H. Baum and others. Many publications were presented by analysts from the IMF, OECD, and World Bank Group.

The transition of the world economy to a post-industrial type of development was largely decisive for current state world transport. The prerequisites for the transition to a qualitatively different level began to take shape in the second half of the twentieth century. Analysis of the dynamics of the share of transport in the structure of world GDP and in the structure of the world service sector allows us to identify some patterns in the stages of development of the transport complex. The last decade of the twentieth century. marked the beginning of the final stage in the formation of a modern international transport complex. The most important feature of this stage is that the importance of transport as an infrastructure sector of the economy was also supplemented by the separation of transport into an independent branch of the service sector.

Reforming international trade models is also an objective condition for the development of transport. New models consist of a transition to interregional and intra-bloc trade - to the creation of supranational integration trade blocs (ASEAN, MERCOSUR, NAFTA, EU), within which the bulk of transactions and, accordingly, transportation is carried out. Currently, two regions have been formed in the world economy, characterized by high economic efficiency of transport services - the USA and the EU, and, based on the existing dynamics of development. Due to already formed distribution structures production capacity in developed countries, regional transport complexes will focus on building a unified global transport system with command and control centers in developed countries. In the future, with a high degree of probability, regional carriers will be absorbed by interregional carriers, and transnational operators will emerge on the international transport market, as a result of which differences in the efficiency of transport services across regions will only increase. Achievements of scientific and technological progress and the introduction of innovations on a massive scale are characteristic of the entire service sector, including the transport industry. Newest technical means and technologies ensure more efficient functioning of all types of transport and management of the transport process. Increasing the knowledge intensity of transport services, widespread implementation information technologies and the use of logistics achievements lead to the modernization of all parts of the modern transport economy of the world community.

The basis for the development of the Transport Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020 was the Order of the President and the Order of the Government of April 7, 2003. In December 2003, the draft Strategy was reviewed and approved by the State Council. In December 2003 and February 2004, the project was reviewed and largely approved by the Government of the Russian Federation.

The structure of internal and external cargo flows, which has radically changed over the last decade, the gradual overcoming of the consequences of the systemic crisis of the 90s and Russia’s entry into a trajectory of sustainable economic growth, required clarification of the priorities for the development of the Russian transport system and the specification of the state’s tasks in the field of transport development. The New Transport Strategy of Russia is a conceptual document that defines the main directions of the state’s transport policy for the period until 2020.

The choice of such a long planning horizon is dictated by the following reasons:

1. Over the past 13-14 years, public administration in the transport sector has been predominantly focused on solving the problems of the current operational plan, qualitatively new system planning based on the development of state strategic priorities for the long term.

2. Transport facilities, and especially transport infrastructure facilities, are characterized by exceptionally high capital intensity, long construction and payback periods.

3. One of the most important tasks of the presented Transport Strategy is to overcome the narrow sectoral approach to planning and development of transport infrastructure and focus on achieving maximum systemic and macroeconomic results.

4. It will be impossible to create a highly efficient and modern transport system without the active involvement of private capital, its financial and organizational resources.

Noting the need for budgetary support, it should be noted that a promising model for organizing financing of the transport complex should be focused on creating conditions for increasing its investment attractiveness.

As a special promising direction attracting extra-budgetary funds, the transport strategy considers the implementation of projects based on the principles and mechanisms of public-private partnership.

In Russia, the main area of application of public-private partnerships in transport should be the construction of toll roads and marine terminal complexes, the reconstruction of airports, railway construction in areas where new fields are being developed, the creation of complex information systems for managing traffic flows, etc.

Today, of course, the priority task is to develop and adopt the necessary regulatory legal framework that ensures a clear legislative distribution of rights. The next systemic task is to increase the efficiency of state property management, create conditions that ensure normal economic activity transport enterprises. The integration of Russia into the global transport services market is identified as a strategic priority direction for the development of the transport complex.

In the context of the formation of a new model for the development of the world economy, transport should become a powerful and effective tool for realizing Russia’s national interests, ensuring the country’s worthy place in the system of world economic relations, and the export of transport services should become a significant component of the national product of the Russian Federation.

The year 2009 got off to a rough start for numerous Russian markets: in the first month, supplies to the country of a variety of goods, from food to cars, decreased. According to the Federal Customs Service, in January the volume of imports decreased by 35%, in February - by 37%. And this could not but cause a further decline in cargo transportation volumes. And if over the last 3 months of 2008 the drop was more than 16%, then in January-February 2009 it was more than 30%.

For cargo carriers operating on international routes, in addition to the problem of a total lack of orders, there is also the problem of the depreciation of the ruble. All contracts, including leasing ones, are drawn up in foreign currency, and its exchange rate is growing every day. This means that regular payments must be made in dollars or euros, each time losing more and more. Thus, the number of carrier companies in 2009 may decrease by 20-30%.

The main problems for transport are: congestion of main highways and urban agglomerations, poor throughput infrastructure, high degree depreciation of fixed capital in transport and, as a consequence, immunity to new technologies, in particular to container transportation, high technogenic loads of transport on the environment and public health, and an insufficiently effective security system.

The study "Market of transport and logistics services in 2010-2011 and forecast until 2014" conducted by RBC.research showed that the Russian logistics outsourcing market is still unstable, but has overcome the consequences of the crisis.

In 2011-2014, the dynamics of the transport services market will be restrained by the uncertain situation in the global goods market, the decline in economic growth rates since 2010 in the world and in Russia, and the slowly recovering investment and consumer demand in Russia.

Based on the economic development forecast proposed by the Ministry of Economic Development in the basic version, in 2011-2014. analysts expect an increase in the freight turnover of public transport to 12%, although the overall dynamics of the industry will be dictated by railway transport - its growth rate will reach 4-4.5% per year. In general, with income from cargo transshipment at airports and seaports, the turnover of transport services in the country by 2014 will amount to more than $72 billion.

Taking into account the dynamics of cargo turnover and freight transportation tariffs, changes in demand and rental rates in the field of warehouse services, the volume of the transport and logistics services market in 2014 compared to 2010 may grow 1.5 times.

Chapter 2. Calculation and analysis of transport services market indicatorsRF

2.1 Grouping

Grouping is the division of units of the statistical population under study into groups depending on the values of the characteristic being studied or the combination of individual units of the population into groups that are homogeneous according to some characteristics. The characteristic, on the basis of the values of which subsets of the original population are formed, is called a grouping characteristic, or the basis of a grouping. It can be quantitative (discrete or interval) and attributive. To solve these problems, three types of groupings are used (respectively): typological, structural and analytical.

Typological grouping is the division of a qualitatively heterogeneous population into qualitatively homogeneous groups (classes, types), while homogeneity is understood as the subordination of all units of the population to one law of development in relation to the property in question.

Structural is a grouping that makes it possible to divide a homogeneous population into groups that characterize the structure of the population under study according to some varying characteristic. Analytical - grouping carried out in order to identify the relationship of characteristics characterizing one statistical population.

Based on the number of grouping characteristics, simple groupings (one characteristic) and complex groups (two or more characteristics) are distinguished. Complex groupings, in turn, are combined (two to four characteristics) and multidimensional.

Multidimensional grouping, or multidimensional classification, is based on measuring the similarity or difference between objects: units assigned to the same group differ less from each other than units assigned to different groups.

Based on the data in Appendix 1, we will bring the available data into the system on the basis of interest to us. As a characteristic to be studied, let us take, for example, the amount of freight turnover of transport in the Russian Federation and construct a distribution series based on it (Table 1).

1) Determination of the number of groups is determined by the formula:

Where n- number of groups,

N - number of population units;

Determining the number of groups is closely related to the concept of interval size: than larger number groups, the smaller the interval, and vice versa. Interval- the difference between the maximum and minimum values of the characteristic in each group. Each interval has a lower (lowest attribute value) and upper (highest attribute value) boundary or one of them. Therefore, the value of the interval is the difference between the upper and lower boundaries of the interval. If the interval has only one boundary (the first one has an upper limit, the last one has a lower limit), then we are talking about open intervals. If an interval has both lower and upper boundaries, then we are talking about closed intervals.

2) The size of the interval is determined by the formula:

Where x max And x min- maximum and minimum value signs in aggregate, n- number of groups.

Table 1. Grouping by cargo turnover (billion t*km)

We will present the grouping results graphically (see Fig. 1)

Rice. 1. Grouping by the size of freight turnover of transport in the Russian Federation for the period from 2006 to 2011.

Having analyzed the data in Table 1 , we can conclude that the largest number of years is included in group No. 3, the volume of cargo turnover of which is no more than 4948 billion tons * km. The share of this group is 66.66% of the total number of groups.

2.2 Calculation of averages

Average values are used at the stage of processing and summarizing the obtained primary statistical data. To determine the value of a characteristic that is characteristic of the entire population of units being studied, they resort to calculating average values.

The average value is a general indicator characterizing the typical level of a phenomenon in specific conditions of place and time, reflecting the value of a varying characteristic per unit of a qualitatively homogeneous population.

The average values are:

· Power means: arithmetic, harmonic, geometric, quadratic, cubic. Depending on the nature of the source data, simple and weighted averages can be used (if the data is ungrouped - simple, grouped - weighted);

· Structural averages (mode and median).

Let's calculate power averages, since the source data is not grouped, simple average formulas will be used in the calculations.

Simple arithmetic mean

Where x - value of the averaged characteristic (variant), n- the number of units of the population being studied.

Based on data from application 2 Let's calculate the average passenger turnover for the period from 2006 to 2010:

Average geometric simple

Most often, the geometric mean finds its application in determining average growth rates (average growth coefficients), when individual values of a characteristic are presented in the form of relative values. To calculate the geometric mean, use the following formula:

Based on data from Appendix 1 Let's first calculate the growth rate of freight turnover and present the results obtained in the form of a table:

Table 2. Product turnover for the period from 2006 to 2011

		freight turnover, billion t*km	growth rate

Based on the data in Table 2, we calculate the simple geometric mean:

During the period from 2006 to 2011, cargo turnover increased on average by 1.0047 times, or by 0.47%

Median and mode

To determine the structure of a population, special average indicators are used, which include the median and mode, or the so-called structural averages.

Structural means are auxiliary characteristics of the population being studied. Mode and median are considered typical characteristics of only a homogeneous population with big amount units.

Mode (Mo) is the numerical value of a characteristic that is most often found in population units. The mode for interval series is determined by the formula:

where: x Mo - lower limit of the modal interval;

i Mo - the value of the modal interval;

f m - modal interval frequency;

f m -1 - frequency of the interval preceding the modal one;

f m +1 - frequency of the interval following the modal one.

Based on the data in table. 1 calculate the mode for the size of cargo turnover:

Thus, at the largest number years of this totality, the volume of cargo turnover is 4858.85 billion t*km.

The median is the value of a characteristic that divides the ordered sequence of its values into two equal parts. For an interval distribution series, the median is calculated using the formula:

Upper limit of the premedian interval

Median interval value

Half sum of accumulated frequencies

Sum of frequencies accumulated before the start of the median interval

Number of observations in the median interval.

Based on the data in Table 1, we will build an auxiliary table from which we will calculate the median for the interval series:

Table 3. Auxiliary table for calculating the median

Consequently, with a cargo turnover of 4828.5 billion t*km, the entire aggregate is divided into two equal parts.

2.3 Relative values

Comparison of statistical data is carried out using relative values.

Relative values are the ratio of two comparable absolute values. In this case, the numerator is called the value being compared, and the denominator is called the basis of relative comparison. In accordance with various tasks and areas of comparison of statistical data, various types of relative values are used.

Relative magnitude of structure

The relative value of the structure (specific gravity) characterizes the share of individual parts in the total volume of the population; it is calculated as the ratio of the number of units (or the volume of the attribute) to the total number of units (or the volume of the attribute) for the entire population.

Calculation of the relative values of the structure over several periods makes it possible to identify structural shifts.

Based on data from Appendix 2 Let's calculate the share of air transport in the total passenger turnover for the period from 2005 to 2010:

Relative magnitude of coordination

The relative magnitude of coordination characterizes the relationship between two parts of one whole, that is, it shows how many units of one group are on average per unit of another group of the population being studied.

Based on the data in Appendix 3, we calculate the ratio of transportation by sea and rail for the period from 2005 to 2010:

Consequently, in 2005, for every one million tons of cargo transported by rail, there were 0.020 million tons of cargo transported by sea; in 2006 - 0.019; in 2007 - 0.021; in 2008 - 0.005; in 2009 - 0.033; in 2010 - 0.028.

Relative magnitude of dynamics

The relative magnitude of the dynamics characterizes the change in the phenomenon over time and shows how many times the level of the indicator has increased (or decreased) compared to any previous period. As a result of this comparison, we obtain the growth coefficient. The growth rate can be calculated with a constant and variable basis of comparison. Growth coefficients with a constant basis of comparison are obtained by comparing the level of the phenomenon of each period with the level of the phenomenon taken as the basis of comparison.

Where at 0 - a constant base of comparison.

Based on the data in Appendix 4, we will calculate the growth rates with a constant comparison base for the transportation of goods by sea (we will take the transportation of oil cargo in 2000 as a constant comparison base):

Consequently, transportation has increased since 2009: in the year they increased by 5.6%, in 2010 by 4.5%. In the period from 2005-2008, the volume of traffic decreased: in 2005 by 27%, in 2006 by 28.2%, in 2007 by 20.6%, in 2008 by 0.6%.

The growth coefficient with a variable comparison base is obtained by comparing the level of the phenomenon of each phenomenon with the level of the phenomenon of the previous period:

Based on the data in Appendix 4, we will calculate growth coefficients with a variable comparison base:

Thus, in 2005, transportation decreased by 0.73 times compared to 2000; in 2006 decreased by 0.978 times compared to 2005; in 2007 increased by 1,106 times compared to 2006; in 2008 increased by 1,293 times compared to 2007; In 2009, transportation of sea cargo increased by 1.0625 times compared to 2008; in 2010 decreased by 0.989 times compared to 2009.

Relative comparison value

Relative comparison values are indicators that are quotients of division of the same absolute statistical values that characterize different objects and relate to the same period of time. Counting relative values comparison, one should pay attention to the comparability of the compared indicators from the perspective of the methodology for their calculation, since for a number of indicators the methods of their calculation in different countries or in different periods of time are not the same.

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Transport service, according to GOST R 51006-96 “Transport Services,” is the result of the activities of the transport service provider to meet the transportation needs of the passenger, consignor and consignee.

Transport ensures the development of international economic relations, facilitating mutually beneficial exchanges between different countries.

By type, transport services can be divided into:

· road transport

· air transportation

· rail transportation

· sea and river transportation

By type of transportation to:

· Passenger transportation: transport services for the movement of passengers related to the safety, timeliness and comfort of passenger transportation, as well as the safety of luggage.

· Freight transportation: transport services for the movement of material assets associated with their safety and timely delivery.

Let's consider the features of types of transportation on the main modes of transport.

Road transport is a type of transport that transports goods and passengers by vehicles (trucks, cars, buses, tractor-trailers and trailers). Plays an unjustifiably modest role in both cargo and passenger transportation modern Russia.

Severe climatic conditions, causing higher costs for road construction, operation of roads and vehicles than in other developed countries, is only a partial explanation for this. After all, even in populated, economically developed regions of Russia, motor transport is poorly developed, and until now the main “stumbling block” to the development of domestic motor transport is off-road conditions.

Taking first place in the world in terms of its territory, Russia is inferior not only to highly developed countries, but also to most developing countries in terms of average road density. The total length of paved roads in Russia at the end of 1996 was only 745 thousand km, and in the overwhelming majority, even these roads did not meet generally accepted world standards.

Despite the high unit costs of transporting goods, motor transport is more mobile than other types of transport and allows for door-to-door delivery of goods, which is its undeniable advantage. Passenger vehicles, in addition to high mobility and speed of communication, also provide greater comfort for passengers. The most effective area of using road transport is short-haul transportation. The average transportation distance for 1 ton of cargo is 20-24 km. In this regard, the share of road transport in the total freight turnover is about 6%.

Greater mobility, ease of movement and the ability to quickly respond to changes in passenger demand allow vehicles to often be unrivaled in passenger transportation on local lines. The average travel distance for one passenger is 9 km. Buses carry more than 60% of passengers in many Russian cities, and in some of them in rural areas - 100 %.

The disadvantages of road transport include: the high cost of transportation (tens of times higher than by rail); high level of pollution environment; high labor intensity (vehicles employ 3/4 of all transport workers), low level of labor productivity due to the low average carrying capacity of vehicles; high metal and energy consumption.

Road transport provides mainly intra-regional transportation of goods and passengers, and carries out centralized transportation from railway stations and ports and back. The current network of highways according to technical and quality characteristics (according to SNiP 2.05.02-85) is divided into five categories or classes (Appendix 1.). According to the national economic and administrative significance, roads of the 1st and partially 2nd categories are called federal, or highways of national importance, 2nd and partially 1st categories - republican, regional or regional, 3rd and 4th categories - local and 5th category - rural.

For the effective use of road transport in Russia, it is necessary to significantly increase roads of the 1st and 2nd categories, the so-called autobahns with the appropriate equipment: car refueling stations and Maintenance, dumpings, road hotels, special parking lots, intersections at different levels, lighting, road signs, car washes, medical centers and other necessary institutions.

Air transport is the fastest and at the same time the most expensive mode of transport, which predetermined its very limited use for cargo transportation. This type of transport mainly transports expensive, perishable goods. And the forecasts that were made in the 60s. that the transportation of goods by air will become of primary importance has not yet been justified. Air travel plays a much larger role in long-distance passenger transportation.

In the modern world, at a time when people's travel around the planet has become large-scale, the role of air transport has increased significantly as the fastest means of travel. long distances. The importance of air transportation is especially great in the implementation of mass tourism. Its rapid development in the middle of the last century required the creation of aircraft that meet various travel purposes and have a high level of comfort. On board aircraft and at airports, passengers are offered a varied and sophisticated service that makes travel enjoyable and accessible to a wide range of people.

Railway transport is a type of transport that transports goods and passengers along rail tracks using mechanical traction (diesel locomotives, electric locomotives, steam locomotives) and is the main one in modern Russia.

It should be recalled that tourism began to develop precisely on the railway, when on July 5, 1841, the English entrepreneur Thomas Cook organized a trip for 570 people by rail in a train. Carrying out structural reform in railway transport involves the introduction of new additional types activities related to passenger services.

The main performance indicators of railway transport can be divided into common for all modes of transport and specific. General indicators include: volume of transportation (dispatch) of cargo and passengers, cargo turnover and passenger turnover, average transportation distance of 1 ton of cargo and 1 passenger, reduced ton-kilometers.

Towards specific quantitative and qualitative performance indicators railways include, in particular, indicators of the volume of cargo transportation by rail by type of communication: import, export, transit and local traffic. Import is the volume of cargo arriving from other roads for unloading on a given road. Export is the volume of shipment of goods loaded on a given road for destination on other roads. Transit refers to the transportation of goods whose departure and destination stations are located outside the road in question and which proceed through the stations of this road. Local traffic includes the volume of freight transport loaded and sent to destinations at stations on the same road.

In addition to these volumetric indicators, the railways also determine general indicators for the reception, delivery, departure and arrival of cargo. Reception of goods from other roads is equal to the sum of import and transit, and delivery of goods to other roads is equal to the sum of export and transit. The departure of goods by road is equal to the sum of export and local traffic, and the arrival (unloading) is the sum of import and local traffic.

Baggage is transported in baggage cars. The unit of observation is the baggage shipment; the primary document is the counterfoil of the luggage receipt, which records the date of receipt, the station and route of departure and destination, the weight of the shipment, and the freight charge.

Transportation of passengers is carried out using passenger tickets, and with the level of comfort and provided that suits a particular consumer.

Water transport, river and sea transport in themselves already evoke the image of a tourist - cruise service and are used quite actively in tourism. Water travel has a number of both advantages and disadvantages compared to other modes of transport. The most significant advantages are a high level of comfort, a large volume of one-time load, the ability to implement various types and purposes of tourism (educational, business tourism, educational, shopping tourism, etc.), good rest, and a full range of life support. The main disadvantages include the low speed of movement of vehicles, high tariffs, limited mobility, and often the susceptibility of some people to “sea sickness” on sea cruises, dependence on geographical features and weather conditions (currents, winds, duration of the navigation period); significant investments in port facilities and transport fleet. In the context of Russia's loss of many major seaports and the economic crisis, the latter circumstance makes it difficult to expand the industry's coastal facilities, as well as replace the decommissioned fleet.

Maritime transport is one of the oldest modes of transport, using the advantages of cheap natural waterways (oceans, seas and sea canals) for mass transportation of goods and passengers. This type of transport performs the following three functions. Firstly, it ensures the country's maritime international connections. Cargo work on overseas voyages consists of the transportation of Russian exports and imports, the delivery of which, under the terms of foreign trade transactions, is the responsibility of the Russian side.

Despite all the importance of maritime transport for the country's economy, its share in the volume of cargo transportation in 2001 was only 0.6%, and in cargo turnover - 7.9%.

The largest share in the volume of transportation (two thirds) and cargo turnover of sea transport (more than 90%) falls on international communications.

River transport is a type of transport that transports goods and passengers along internal natural (rivers, lakes) and artificial (canals, reservoirs and locked sections of rivers) waterways. River transport historically occupies one of the leading places in servicing large industrial centers of riverine areas. River transport is especially important for northern and eastern regions countries where the railway network is insufficient, and the density of the inland waterway network is 2 times higher than the average for the Russian Federation. Therefore, the share of river transport in the total freight turnover of these areas ranges from 65 to 90%, while in Russia as a whole this figure in 2001 was only 3.3%.

In addition to transport services to the regions of Siberia and the Far East, including the Arctic, river transport also carries out complex, expensive transportation along small rivers in hard-to-reach areas, as well as highly profitable transportation of foreign trade cargo by mixed (river-sea) navigation vessels. The river fleet of the Russian Federation serves 68 republics, territories, regions and national districts. The length of inland waterways was in 2001. 85.4 thousand km, while at 50% of their length a certain depth is guaranteed during navigation. The length of inland waterways in the Tyumen region amounted to 9.8 thousand km in 2002. Thus, in the European part of Russia, as a result of the construction of connecting canals (White Sea-Baltic, Volga-Baltic, Volga-Don), the territorial disunity of inland waterways and a unified deep-sea transport system was created, connecting the Beloye, Baltic, Caspian, Azov and Black Sea. The length of the unified deep-water system (UDS) is 6.5 thousand km, the guaranteed depth along almost its entire length is 4 m. The UGS accounts for more than half of the cargo turnover of inland water transport.

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Criteria for preparing an act on write-off of motor vehicles

Name indicators	As of the end of the corresponding year
Name indicators		20 10
Transport, total
including:
railway
automotive
pipeline
nautical
inland waterway
air

Types of transport services. Analysis of transport services in the Russian Federation

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2.1 Grouping

2.4 Variation indicators

2.5 Dynamic series

2.8 Correlation and regression analysis

Conclusion

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations for studying the transport services market

2.1 Grouping

2.3 Relative values

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